Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ea4…46f9 other 148 markets active 22h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-22%) realized −$123 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$93
14 days−$141
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$75
other 34% −$35
world 11% −$16
crypto 10% −$19
tech 1% −$9
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -32.8% -39.2% 31% 30% -32.1%
≤30d 136 -18.5% -26.3% 27% 26% -31.4%
≤90d 136 -18.5% -26.3% 27% 26% -31.4%
all 136 -18.5% -26.3% 27% 26% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 26% -31.4%
10% -33.3% 24% -37.9%
15% -39.8% 21% -43.9%
20% -45.7% 18% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 99
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)136 / 148
History coverage36d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ 50¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-84%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$35 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $53 −$36 -68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +407%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 36h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 39h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Aoi Ito 26¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 27¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.31 · official $61.31 (match) · 241 history records