Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e9e…ee7e sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,059 (+4%) realized +$2,325 · open −$1,266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%56W / 22L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$148
14 days+$71
30 days−$1,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,547
sports 28% −$70
politics 15% −$1,266
economics 2% $0
world 2% −$478
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 40% -6.2%
≤30d 36 -24.1% -31.3% 61% 22% -18.7%
≤90d 60 -5.8% -14.8% 70% 42% -13.0%
all 78 +3.1% -6.7% 72% 49% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 49% -5.7%
10% -15.6% 32% -14.7%
15% -23.8% 19% -22.9%
20% -31.2% 13% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$107 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$4,000
Realized+$2,325
Unrealized−$1,266
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses56 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage214d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $2,000 $3,266 +$1,266 (+63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $2,000 $734 −$1,266 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $85 +$16 +19%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $653 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $52 +$4 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $45 +$7 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $38 +$8 +20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,790 +$59 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $91 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $941 +$47 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 $0 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,009 −$87 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,003 +$8 +1%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $402 +$3 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $830 +$10 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $401 +$39 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $678 +$107 +16%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5 May 26 $501 +$25 +5%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 0.5 May 23 $300 +$15 +5%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $212 +$18 +8%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score May 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Algeria vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 May 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 May 22 $135 −$135 -100%
Paris FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5 May 22 $187 −$187 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 22 $240 −$240 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? May 22 $478 −$478 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5 May 22 $146 +$9 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 22 $51 +$19 +38%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. US Avellino 1912: O/U 1.5 May 12 $67 −$20 -30%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $50 +$14 +28%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score May 12 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $459 −$243 -53%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 09 $71 +$28 +39%
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $301 +$113 +38%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $155 +$25 +16%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $252 +$56 +22%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to Score May 03 $101 +$55 +54%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $53 +$30 +57%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $373 +$16 +4%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $6 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $101 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $302 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $332 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 9h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 9h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $12 9h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $653 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $85 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $52 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $45 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $38 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 76¢ $787 34h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 73¢ $756 35h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 76¢ $152 35h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 76¢ $152 35h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 76¢ $380 35h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 76¢ $372 35h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 74¢ $1,029 35h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 57¢ $3 47h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 57¢ $2 47h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 56¢ $5 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $27 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 73¢ $91 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 73¢ $91 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $988 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,000.00 · official $4,000.00 (match) · 258 history records