Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e9c…c0a0 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$30 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$34
sports 27% +$80
crypto 18% −$37
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.4% -33.4% 33% 33% -3.6%
≤30d 38 -26.7% -33.7% 45% 29% -7.7%
≤90d 38 -26.7% -33.7% 45% 29% -7.7%
all 38 -26.7% -33.7% 45% 29% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 29% -7.7%
10% -40.1% 24% -16.5%
15% -45.9% 21% -24.6%
20% -51.2% 8% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage15d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $140 $137 −$3 (-2%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -29%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$37 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$47 -77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$90 -88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$106 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $141 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 6h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 6h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 76¢ $206 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.87 · official $142.87 (match) · 107 history records