trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $30 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? | May 30 | $20 | +$51 | +250% |
| Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? | May 24 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? | May 17 | $20 | +$11 | +57% |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? | May 10 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? | May 09 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? | May 04 | $10 | +$49 | +478% |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? | May 04 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? | May 03 | $20 | +$30 | +145% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? | Apr 19 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? | Apr 18 | $20 | +$47 | +234% |
| Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? | Apr 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? | Apr 13 | $30 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? | Apr 11 | $10 | +$60 | +595% |
| Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? | Apr 11 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | Apr 10 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | Apr 10 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 07 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? | Feb 07 | $19 | +$11 | +61% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? | Feb 01 | $50 | +$4 | +8% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? | Jan 25 | $19 | +$101 | +524% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +50.6% | +36.3% | 50% | 50% | +31.5% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +42.5% | +28.9% | 39% | 33% | +40.9% |
| all | 24 | +44.1% | +30.4% | 42% | 33% | +53.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +30.4% | 33% | +53.8% |
| 10% | +17.9% | 33% | +39.1% |
| 15% | +6.5% | 33% | +25.6% |
| 20% | -3.9% | 33% | +13.3% |