Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e98…110b sports 651 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,709 (-6%) realized −$7,024 · open +$315
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%300W / 347L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$983est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$10,330
other 14% −$1,583
politics 0% −$103
weather 0% −$50
world 0% −$37
crypto 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -45.0% -50.2% 25% 25% -29.1%
≤30d 68 -10.2% -18.7% 49% 49% -18.6%
≤90d 647 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 43% -18.9%
all 647 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 43% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 43% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 39% -26.7%
15% -31.0% 33% -33.8%
20% -37.8% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$129 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,459
Realized−$7,024
Unrealized+$315
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses300 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$983
Open positions1
Markets (closed)647 / 651
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$186
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1,144 $1,459 +$315 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 +$27 +74%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $211 +$96 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $126 +$60 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 +$148 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$20 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$41 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$60 +165%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-27? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $17 +$7 +42%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $25 +$3 +12%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 02 $25 +$4 +18%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 02 $26 +$8 +31%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $25 +$4 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $25 +$5 +22%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $103 +$160 +156%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $26 +$8 +32%
LoL: New Meta vs DetonatioN FocusMe Academy (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 27 $4 +$2 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $25 +$16 +64%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 27 $25 +$4 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 27 $25 +$7 +27%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 27 $26 +$9 +34%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 27 $26 +$25 +97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $25 +$8 +31%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $51 +$177 +348%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $25 +$10 +38%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $25 +$10 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $63 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $211 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 42h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $126 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 8¢ $26 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $36 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $36 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 13¢ $21 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,175 6d
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 27¢ $26 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 85¢ $13 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,458.61 · official $1,458.61 (match) · 3500 history records