Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1e98…0bbf sports 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,891 (-5%) realized −$3,936 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%54W / 53L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$789per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 602d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$8,225
other 34% −$2,907
politics 21% +$9,338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.6% -33.6% 43% 36% -39.0%
≤30d 21 -17.4% -25.3% 52% 43% -25.0%
≤90d 29 -11.4% -19.8% 52% 41% -25.1%
all 107 -18.5% -26.2% 50% 47% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 47% -11.5%
10% -33.3% 38% -20.0%
15% -39.7% 29% -27.7%
20% -45.7% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$478 vs −$521 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$2,330
Realized−$3,936
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses54 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage602d
Avg bet$789
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 77¢ 78¢ $2,285 $2,330 +$45 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 22 $2,278 +$21 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,680 +$575 +34%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $149 −$147 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $101 +$47 +46%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $720 −$618 -86%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $3,299 −$2,583 -78%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $2,644 −$2,633 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1,026 +$1,619 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $998 −$984 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $998 −$991 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $64 −$63 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $426 +$63 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $990 +$390 +39%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,017 −$17 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $412 −$409 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,020 −$604 -59%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,000 +$24 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,145 +$150 +13%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,000 +$145 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,610 +$1,494 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,114 +$486 +44%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $524 −$523 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $999 −$469 -47%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Apr 30 $507 +$293 +58%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $656 +$179 +27%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $78 −$78 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions Apr 17 $81 −$3 -3%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan Apr 16 $77 +$4 +6%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-03-07? Apr 15 $26 +$51 +195%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Mar 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Jan 31 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 28 $42 +$14 +33%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 27 $23 +$19 +82%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 28 $162 −$162 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Dec 28 $108 +$54 +50%
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 Dec 27 $81 +$27 +34%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $67 +$14 +22%
Will Manchester City vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Nov 29 $301 −$301 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? Nov 28 $465 +$111 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $331 +$135 +41%
Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $198 −$198 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Nov 19 $233 −$32 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $139 +$62 +44%
Magic vs. Rockets Nov 17 $91 +$43 +47%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Nov 16 $50 +$25 +49%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 15 $40 +$32 +82%
Open de Moselle: Francesco Passaro vs Alexander Blockx Nov 04 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $501 +$438 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $2,301 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Austria 97¢ $93 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Austria 97¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Austria 97¢ $2,191 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 96¢ $2,278 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $2,255 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,663 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $149 25h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 99¢ $148 25h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $101 25h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain $102 25h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $271 27h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $449 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 15¢ $716 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $34 29h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $3,265 29h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 86¢ $1,059 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 85¢ $26 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 85¢ $1,560 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $1,026 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $998 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $998 5d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 42¢ $64 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $489 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $426 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,380 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $984 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $7 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 82¢ $1,000 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,329.79 · official $2,329.79 (match) · 360 history records