Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e98…6345
other · 628 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,877 +44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$376 · open +$967
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,936
Realized+$376
Unrealized+$967
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses172 / 157
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions499
Markets (closed)329 / 628
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1185.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 499 History 329 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$376
14 days+$376
30 days+$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 0¢ 36¢ $0 $73 +$73 (+18150%)
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 8¢ 62¢ $8 $62 +$54 (+669%)
Printr FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 30¢ $14 $59 +$45 (+322%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 7¢ 39¢ $9 $49 +$40 (+427%)
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 10¢ 36¢ $13 $47 +$34 (+262%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? No 10¢ 64¢ $7 $42 +$36 (+535%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Yes 1¢ 36¢ $1 $36 +$35 (+3150%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $13 $31 +$18 (+144%)
US bank failure by June 30? Yes 10¢ 32¢ $9 $30 +$21 (+225%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? Yes 3¢ 29¢ $3 $29 +$26 (+865%)
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 1¢ 47¢ $0 $28 +$27 (+6550%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 4¢ 68¢ $2 $27 +$26 (+1587%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 0¢ 24¢ $0 $26 +$25 (+6677%)
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? Yes 7¢ 34¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+363%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? Yes 10¢ 25¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+150%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $4 $24 +$20 (+507%)
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $8 $23 +$15 (+187%)
Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs get engaged in 2026? Yes 4¢ 23¢ $4 $23 +$19 (+466%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+118%)
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes 2¢ 22¢ $2 $22 +$20 (+1111%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? No 10¢ 24¢ $9 $22 +$13 (+145%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 8¢ 22¢ $8 $22 +$14 (+169%)
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $8 $21 +$12 (+148%)
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 5¢ 21¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+319%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $0 +$20 +24925%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -87%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$4 -24%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +657%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -54%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +101%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +225%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 14 $7 −$3 -47%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +79%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -38%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $43 +$7 +16%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 14 $8 +$19 +236%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $64 +$7 +11%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $23 −$5 -21%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 14 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Jun 14 $14 −$10 -70%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +70%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -29%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 13 $33 −$2 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -11%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 13 $1 +$2 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% +$836
tech 15% +$44
world 14% +$155
politics 10% +$153
finance 2% +$35
economics 1% +$8
culture 1% +$48
sports 1% +$37
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1m
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1m
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2m
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 10m
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21m
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26m
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30m
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31m
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 32m
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the SELL Yes 2¢ $1 33m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $0 34m
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 3¢ $3 36m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 +63.4% +47.8% 52% 43% +1.3%
≤30d 329 +63.4% +47.8% 52% 43% +1.3%
≤90d 329 +63.4% +47.8% 52% 43% +1.3%
all 329 +63.4% +47.8% 52% 43% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1185.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.8% 43% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here +33.7% 33% -8.4%
15% +20.8% 26% -17.2%
20% +8.9% 23% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,935.60 · official $6,682.32 · 3500 history records