Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e90…4a0d sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$75
other 23% +$111
world 4% $0
crypto 2% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -26.4% -33.4% 29% 29% -1.1%
≤30d 51 -26.4% -33.4% 29% 29% -1.1%
≤90d 51 -26.4% -33.4% 29% 29% -1.1%
all 51 -26.4% -33.4% 29% 29% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 29% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 27% -10.6%
15% -45.6% 27% -19.2%
20% -50.9% 25% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$15 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)51 / 58
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 +$34 +110%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $189 +$23 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$26 +47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$17 +102%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$15 +151%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$26 -84%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 $0 -1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $21 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$49 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 +$35 +199%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$92 +300%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$29 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$28 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$2 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 +$53 +173%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$22 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $49 −$18 -38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$85 +276%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 92¢ $64 37m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 3¢ $1 39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 3¢ $4 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 3¢ $0 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $93 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 84¢ $211 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $57 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $28 1h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $54 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 1¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 1¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.37 · official $74.37 (match) · 158 history records