Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e8e…f9b2 sports 346 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+0%) realized +$225 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%163W / 181L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$923est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$317
14 days−$1,299
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$142
other 2% +$749
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.5% -8.2% 42% 42% -12.8%
≤30d 226 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 45% -9.0%
≤90d 337 +2.7% -7.1% 47% 47% -8.0%
all 344 +2.6% -7.2% 47% 47% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 47% -8.3%
10% -16.1% 47% -17.1%
15% -24.2% 47% -25.1%
20% -31.6% 45% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$162 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$225
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses163 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$923
Open positions1
Markets (closed)344 / 346
History coverage143d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 38¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $272 +$323 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $598 −$589 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $208 −$205 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $396 +$489 +124%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $204 +$284 +139%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $260 +$183 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $90 +$77 +86%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $256 −$252 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $189 −$186 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$89 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $503 +$114 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $209 −$205 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$104 +102%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $248 +$213 +86%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $209 +$292 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $142 −$140 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $168 +$266 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $234 +$231 +99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $306 +$445 +146%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $192 −$190 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $163 −$160 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$199 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $142 −$140 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $134 +$211 +158%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$130 +158%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $297 −$216 -73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $208 −$205 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$210 +206%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $173 −$136 -79%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$380 +408%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $495 −$486 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$201 +198%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $193 +$211 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$187 +365%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $90 −$88 -98%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $215 −$211 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $596 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $272 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 48¢ $598 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ $208 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $77 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $396 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 38¢ $238 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $153 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $487 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $204 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $122 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $260 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 53¢ $90 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $256 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $189 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $100 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $503 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 43¢ $209 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $205 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 54¢ $152 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $462 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $248 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 53¢ $152 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 45¢ $102 5d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $500 5d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 41¢ $209 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $142 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 547 history records