Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e8b…b7b8 weather 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$165 (+3%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%33W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$203
14 days−$203
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$54
weather 27% −$18
politics 13% +$7
crypto 8% +$64
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -96.4% -96.7% 0% 0% -90.7%
≤30d 37 -91.9% -92.6% 3% 3% -83.1%
≤90d 70 -23.5% -30.8% 16% 14% -20.1%
all 101 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 13% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 13% -12.6%
10% -31.5% 12% -21.0%
15% -38.1% 11% -28.6%
20% -44.2% 9% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 66
History coverage235d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 5? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 25? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 6? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 6? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 27? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 25? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on May 6? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 25? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 26? Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 5? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 25? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 5? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 6? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 6? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 5? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 25? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on May 6? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 26? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 25? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 6? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 5? Jun 14 $0 −$2 -1324%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 26? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 25? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 6? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 5? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on April 25? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on April 25? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 6? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 25? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $38 −$19 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 11 $35 −$18 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $12 +$9 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 6? May 06 $16 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $25 +$142 +561%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C or below on May 6? May 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $4 −$12 -292%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 5? May 05 $13 +$18 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 5? May 05 $4 −$6 -148%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or below on May 5? May 05 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 27? May 05 $1 +$5 +448%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 27? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 26? Apr 26 $80 +$80 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 48m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 23? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 22d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 6? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? SELL Yes 98¢ $152 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 6? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 6? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C or below on May 6? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C or below on May 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 6? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 6? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 6? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records