Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e8a…2ad7 crypto 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$881 (-21%) realized −$858 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%32W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days+$90
14 days−$204
30 days−$700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$390
other 40% −$172
sports 15% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +35.1% +22.2% 33% 33% -1.8%
≤30d 105 -5.3% -14.3% 30% 29% -30.9%
≤90d 107 -5.3% -14.3% 30% 29% -30.6%
all 109 -7.0% -15.9% 29% 28% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 28% -31.4%
10% -23.9% 28% -37.9%
15% -31.3% 25% -43.9%
20% -38.0% 23% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$27 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$858
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses32 / 77
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)109 / 119
History coverage196d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $149 $136 −$13 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $70 $56 −$14 (-20%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -96%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? AND Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Swede Jun 26 $10 +$89 +894%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $21 +$122 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$42 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $37 +$24 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $26 +$83 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$30 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $27 +$121 +454%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$34 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $21 +$113 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$5 +22%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$64 +156%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -96%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $111 −$109 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 5h
France leading at halftime? AND Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY 12¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? AND Türkiye vs. United State BUY 9¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.40 · official $286.40 (match) · 395 history records