Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e89…af95 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$885 (+20%) realized +$794 · open +$91
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$738
other 15% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 55% -11.1%
≤30d 20 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 55% -11.1%
≤90d 20 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 55% -11.1%
all 24 +9.9% -0.5% 67% 62% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 62% +7.2%
10% -10.1% 58% -3.0%
15% -18.8% 29% -12.4%
20% -26.7% 17% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$95 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized+$794
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage253d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $270 $268 −$2 (-1%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 100¢ $125 $219 +$94 (+75%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 39¢ 38¢ $114 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $217 +$61 +28%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $225 +$53 +24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $168 +$53 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $216 +$66 +31%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Jun 19 $556 +$16 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $287 −$287 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault Jun 19 $68 +$15 +22%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $433 +$129 +30%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 19 $97 +$83 +85%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $44 +$112 +257%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $99 +$32 +32%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $214 +$58 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $72 +$30 +41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Oct 10 $492 +$620 +126%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) Oct 10 $136 +$63 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $37 +$75 +205%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 09 $25 +$12 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $58 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 38¢ $54 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $57 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $271 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $134 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $58 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $26 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $6 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $124 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $17 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $35 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $7 3h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $225 6h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 27¢ $38 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $168 8h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 8h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 8h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 8h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 8h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 8h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $9 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 9h
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault BUY Gavin Young 82¢ $5 9h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $126 9h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 31¢ $49 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.22 · official $599.25 (match) · 110 history records