Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e88…697d crypto 925 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$725 (-4%) realized −$760 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%302W / 615L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days+$27
14 days−$57
30 days+$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$834
sports 19% −$655
other 4% +$129
weather 3% +$41
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -6.6% -15.5% 24% 24% -6.6%
≤30d 178 +20.1% +8.7% 33% 33% -0.1%
≤90d 917 -13.5% -21.8% 33% 30% -15.8%
all 917 -13.5% -21.8% 33% 30% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 30% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 25% -23.9%
15% -36.1% 21% -31.2%
20% -42.4% 18% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$760
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses302 / 615
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions2
Markets (closed)917 / 925
History coverage63d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $32 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$20 +129%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$33 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 +$50 +325%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 +$67 +187%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$37 +244%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$21 +102%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $31 +$60 +194%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $31 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 +$229 +1116%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 +$33 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$54 +175%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $14 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$9 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 16h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 1¢ $1 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 27¢ $10 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 28¢ $3 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 31¢ $3 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $20 27h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 2¢ $5 32h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 26¢ $20 47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 73¢ $35 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $15 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $54 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 32¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $54 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 23¢ $15 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $15 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $49 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Ecuado BUY 14¢ $15 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 5¢ $15 3d
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 28¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.64 · official $114.64 (match) · 2190 history records