Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e86…9665 politics 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$9
other 30% −$5
economics 13% −$2
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 67 -0.4% -9.8% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage633d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
F1 season canceled or other team wins? Nov 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fred VanVleet lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the Bundesliga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC North? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-21? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Democrats win popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $1 before December? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 17 $0 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Brian Blase for HHS Secretary? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Matt Rosendale for Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 15h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $53 21d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $53 21d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 39d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 40d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 45d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 46d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 63d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 63d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 68d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 69d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $54 93d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $54 94d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 97d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 98d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 101d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 102d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $54 104d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $54 105d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 106d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 107d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 109d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 109d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 109d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 116d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 117d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records