Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1E 0x1e86…29ab other 85 markets active 6h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$582 (+1%) realized +$618 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%18W / 66L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$176
tech 19% −$3,349
other 16% +$3,012
politics 10% +$15
crypto 5% +$2,129
finance 4% −$40
economics 3% −$807
world 1% −$245
culture 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -24.9% -32.1% 0% 0% -32.1%
≤30d 1 -24.9% -32.1% 0% 0% -32.1%
≤90d 3 -75.0% -77.4% 0% 0% -80.3%
all 84 +15.2% +4.3% 21% 20% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 20% -2.4%
10% -5.7% 19% -11.8%
15% -14.8% 19% -20.3%
20% -23.2% 18% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +27% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,102 vs −$291 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses18 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage268d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $218 $182 −$36 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Jun 29 $300 −$75 -25%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 02 $250 −$245 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 02 $500 −$489 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $2,100 −$1,477 -70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 24 $450 −$450 -100%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jan 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $2,675 −$2,675 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jan 08 $1,459 −$1,459 -100%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 04 $425 +$2,070 +487%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 03 $1,650 +$1,427 +86%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Dec 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference? Dec 25 $2 +$43 +1900%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 25 $525 +$225 +43%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 25 $2,700 +$7,290 +270%
Altcoin market cap dip to $160B by December 31? Dec 19 $980 −$967 -99%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 16 $370 +$629 +170%
Lakers vs. Suns Dec 15 $150 +$162 +108%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 13 $740 +$1,949 +263%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference? Dec 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Powell say "Probability" during December press conference? Dec 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 4 straight weeks? Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
USD1 depeg by December 31? Dec 08 $80 −$80 -100%
USR depeg by December 31? Dec 03 $110 −$110 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Dec 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Nov 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down on November 27? Nov 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Nov 24 $230 −$105 -46%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 23 $5,150 −$3,345 -65%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025? Nov 21 $217 −$106 -49%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $250 −$250 -100%
USDE depeg by December 31? Nov 14 $190 −$190 -100%
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Nov 13 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
GHO depeg by December 31? Nov 11 $45 −$45 -100%
USDTb depeg by December 31? Nov 10 $134 −$134 -100%
USDS depeg by December 31? Nov 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ghost of Yotei win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $3,500 +$468 +13%
USDC depeg by December 31? Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
DAI depeg by December 31? Nov 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $225 5h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $225 6h
Suns vs. Hornets BUY Suns 34¢ $250 87d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 24¢ $500 87d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $623 101d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $115 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 115d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 124d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $600 124d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $500 124d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $500 124d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1,000 124d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 125d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 13¢ $127 125d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 14¢ $70 125d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 17¢ $250 125d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 149d
Thunder vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 38¢ $1,000 164d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 27¢ $675 166d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 28¢ $1,000 166d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 28¢ $1,000 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.96 · official $191.96 (match) · 680 history records