Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e83…1176 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$35 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate75%69W / 23L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,921now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$388
14 days−$2,446
30 days−$1,924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$434
sports 2% +$256
world 2% +$88
crypto 1% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 37 +5.0% -5.0% 97% 11% -11.6%
≤90d 92 +3.0% -6.8% 75% 33% -9.7%
all 92 +3.0% -6.8% 75% 33% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 33% -9.7%
10% -15.7% 24% -18.3%
15% -23.9% 15% -26.2%
20% -31.3% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,548) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$151 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,921
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses69 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage57d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals No 99¢ 97¢ $1,957 $1,921 −$37 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,954 +$19 +1%
Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $1,955 +$19 +1%
Donyell Malen: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,955 +$19 +1%
Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,955 +$19 +1%
Tete Yengi: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,956 +$19 +1%
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,956 +$19 +1%
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals Jun 17 $2,800 +$27 +1%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 3+ goals Jun 16 $3,393 +$37 +1%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 3+ goals Jun 16 $3,392 +$37 +1%
Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals Jun 15 $3,390 +$37 +1%
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals Jun 15 $3,331 +$100 +3%
Firas Chaouat: 3+ goals Jun 15 $3,323 +$36 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $6,460 −$3,133 -48%
Can Uzun: 3+ goals Jun 14 $6,393 +$69 +1%
Findlay Curtis: 3+ goals Jun 14 $6,386 +$69 +1%
Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots Jun 14 $6,380 +$69 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 13 $6,378 +$69 +1%
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 1 Spain? Jun 09 $1,139 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $1,164 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 3 - 0 Cyprus? Jun 07 $198 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Chile? Jun 07 $1,187 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Thailand 3 - 3 Kuwait? Jun 06 $1,187 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Slovenia 3 - 3 Cyprus? Jun 05 $1,187 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Albania 3 - 3 Israel? Jun 04 $1,187 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 3 Romania? Jun 03 $2,078 +$22 +1%
Exact Score: Bulgaria 3 - 3 Montenegro? Jun 02 $2,078 +$22 +1%
Exact Score: Singapore 1 - 3 Mongolia? Jun 01 $1,586 +$23 +2%
Ibrahim Mbaye: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $1,084 +$16 +2%
Exact Score: Andorra 2 - 2 Iraq? May 30 $1,030 +$20 +2%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 Russia? May 29 $1,025 +$75 +7%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) May 27 $903 +$97 +11%
Morocco vs. Burundi: O/U 5.5 May 27 $646 +$54 +8%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) May 26 $698 +$102 +15%
Christian Pulisic: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $19 +$11 +62%
Santiago Gimenez: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $16 +$14 +93%
Williot Swedberg: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $392 +$8 +2%
Gianluca Scamacca: Anytime Goalscorer May 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Palermo FC 1 - 1 US Catanzaro 1929? May 21 $1,805 +$195 +11%
Exact Score: AC Monza 0 - 0 SS Juve Stabia? May 20 $182 +$18 +10%
Exact Score: AC Monza 1 - 1 SS Juve Stabia? May 20 $1,548 +$252 +16%
Exact Score: CD Leganés 0 - 0 SD Huesca? May 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5) May 19 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,958 1h
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,954 17h
Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,955 27h
Donyell Malen: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,955 42h
Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,955 2d
Tete Yengi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,956 2d
Denis Višinský: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,956 3d
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $2,800 4d
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $3,393 6d
Nicolás de la Cruz: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $3,392 6d
Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $3,390 6d
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $3,331 6d
Firas Chaouat: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $3,323 7d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 97¢ $6,460 7d
Can Uzun: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $6,393 7d
Findlay Curtis: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $6,386 8d
Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $6,380 8d
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 99¢ $6,378 8d
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $1,139 13d
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $1,164 13d
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 3 - 0 Cyprus? BUY No 99¢ $198 14d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Chile? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 15d
Exact Score: Thailand 3 - 3 Kuwait? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 16d
Exact Score: Slovenia 3 - 3 Cyprus? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 17d
Exact Score: Albania 3 - 3 Israel? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 18d
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 3 Romania? BUY No 99¢ $2,078 19d
Exact Score: Bulgaria 3 - 3 Montenegro? BUY No 99¢ $2,078 20d
Exact Score: Singapore 1 - 3 Mongolia? BUY No 99¢ $1,586 21d
Ibrahim Mbaye: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 98¢ $1,084 22d
Exact Score: Andorra 2 - 2 Iraq? BUY No 98¢ $1,030 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,920.58 · official $1,920.58 (match) · 412 history records