Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e82…af92 other 500 markets active 42d ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (814 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$86,629 (+25%) realized +$86,359 · open +$270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate17%144W / 707L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$705per market
Trades / day813.9pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$214,829
tech 12% −$36,554
world 9% −$32,168
politics 7% −$24,302
culture 4% −$13,475
sports 4% −$10,932
economics 0% −$1,221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (814 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 +60.5% +45.2% 10% 10% -99.1%
≤30d 242 +60.0% +44.7% 10% 10% -99.0%
≤90d 737 -37.5% -43.5% 4% 4% -97.8%
all 737 -37.5% -43.5% 4% 4% -97.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover813.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.5% 4% -97.8%
10% ← realistic here -48.9% 4% -98.0%
15% -53.8% 4% -98.2%
20% -58.3% 4% -98.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -91% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$486 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$717
Realized+$86,359
Unrealized+$270
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses144 / 707
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions138
Markets (closed)851 / 500
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$705
Trades / day813.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 138 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $40 $488 +$448 (+1119%)
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 32¢ $-0 $40 +$40 (-45302%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $179 $35 −$144 (-80%)
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $1 $24 +$23 (+2929%)
Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 2¢ 24¢ $1 $8 +$8 (+1468%)
Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$8 (-710%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$7 (-858%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$7 (-858%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$7 (-962%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$6 (-1211%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$6 (-1211%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$6 (-1211%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $6 +$7 (-794%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-2 $6 +$7 (-442%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-4 $5 +$9 (-248%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-4 $5 +$9 (-248%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-3 $5 +$7 (-254%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-3 $5 +$7 (-254%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-3 $5 +$7 (-254%)
Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+272%)
Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+248%)
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+173%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will OG Anunoby Jr. be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$33 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 362 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +1001%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$416 -53854%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$463 -60714%
Will Winthrop University win NACL 2026 Spring? Jun 29 $0 $0 +242%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +3900%
Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 −$62 -10249%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 29 $0 +$1 +6831%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Jun 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Cooper win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 29 $0 +$7 +262160%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$463 -110216%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$414 -98604%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 29 $0 $0 +11695%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$536 -190508%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 1 Jun 29 $0 +$17 +151190%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$431 -313862%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 +995%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Jun 29 $0 +$1 +13307%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$17 +110911%
Will "Bugonia" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Pictu Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the US strike 1 country in 2026? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Malena Adrada be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 To Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 29 $15 −$16 -104%
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 16? Jun 29 $0 $0 -6888%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -82%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 29 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Afghanistan win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Liam Lawson achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will "Ms. Rachel: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Jun 29 $-1 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 29 $-3 +$7 —%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will BBL Esports win Masters Santiago 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$1 —%
Will 7-Eleven: Rewards & Shopping be #2 Free App in the US Apple App S Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chrissy Hofbeck be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tan Zhongyi win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? Jun 29 $2 −$6 -264%
Will Amanda Edwards be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the CA Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lehigh win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $94 −$251 -268%
Will Khamenei post 200+ posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win Pool A at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? Jun 29 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 41d
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 42d
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Ajay Mitchell win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 42d
Will Kim David be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 42d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 43d
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 43d
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio SELL Yes 1¢ $0 43d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 43d
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 43d
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 43d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 43d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Maxx Crosby play for Houston Texans next? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43d
Will Yoo Young-ha win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $0 43d
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contr SELL No 100¢ $0 43d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 43d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 43d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 43d
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 43d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 43d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $716.98 · official $707.43 · 3500 history records