Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e82…efe2 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$2
other 17% $0
sports 7% +$9
politics 6% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 18 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 18 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 34 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage492d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $30 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $16 −$1 -6%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $4 $0 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$3 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $18 $0 -1%
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics Mar 04 $7 $0 -1%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Mar 04 $16 −$1 -5%
Oral Roberts vs. Denver Mar 04 $10 +$9 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $29 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 16h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $5 26h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $26 26h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 28h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $21 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $28 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records