Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e7f…8c49 other 85 markets active 10h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+0%) realized +$154 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%79W / 2L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$3,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$240
14 days+$275
30 days+$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$198
crypto 21% −$341
other 19% +$63
finance 11% +$76
tech 8% +$162
economics 5% +$6
politics 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 22 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -7.5%
all 81 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.1%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$192 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$3,770
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses79 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage207d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2,975 $3,000 +$26 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $336 $338 +$2 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $313 $313 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 63¢ $140 $119 −$21 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $3,016 +$162 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 12 $3,721 +$75 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $293 +$3 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $303 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,402 +$35 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6,408 +$153 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 16 $188 +$4 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 15 $294 +$3 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 06 $209 +$3 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 06 $133 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 28 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 12 $318 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $154 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 05 $135 +$3 +2%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $184 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 03 $398 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $411 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $122 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 13 $185 +$1 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Mar 12 $258 +$1 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 10 $46 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 07 $95 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 07 $233 +$3 +1%
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 07 $97 +$1 +1%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Mar 04 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 01 $369 +$1 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 28 $167 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $93 $0 +0%
Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $99 $0 +0%
Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 10 $61 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 10 $401 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 02 $337 +$2 +0%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 02 $66 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 30 $513 −$275 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31? Jan 29 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jan 29 $110 −$110 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $777 +$3 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jan 23 $172 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jan 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 19 $79 $0 +0%
Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jan 18 $59 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $444 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $89 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $62 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $35 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,197 9h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $321 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,016 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $346 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $296 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $303 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $303 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $318 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $313 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $91 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,770.42 · official $3,770.42 (match) · 374 history records