Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e7e…c5ab other 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$136 (-7%) realized −$127 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$301
14 days−$214
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$122
crypto 24% −$121
sports 9% +$6
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -23.4% -30.7% 29% 24% -34.8%
≤30d 68 -21.0% -28.5% 31% 26% -25.8%
≤90d 71 -21.3% -28.8% 31% 27% -26.3%
all 71 -21.3% -28.8% 31% 27% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 27% -26.3%
10% -35.6% 25% -33.4%
15% -41.8% 24% -39.8%
20% -47.5% 20% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions33
Markets (closed)71 / 105
History coverage80d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+77%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+77%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-45%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-41%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$34 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$19 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 $0 -7%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $20 +$21 +101%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$30 +291%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $60 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $18 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.83 · official $532.88 (match) · 204 history records