Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e7d…fa81 sports 389 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$10,406 (+17%) realized +$10,406 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate71%278W / 111L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$1,148est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$425
7 days+$2,516
14 days+$2,794
30 days+$6,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$7,539
other 25% +$1,946
world 2% +$226
crypto 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +68.6% +52.5% 80% 50% +9.6%
≤30d 179 +21.9% +10.3% 74% 56% +3.6%
≤90d 389 +25.1% +13.2% 71% 55% +4.6%
all 389 +25.1% +13.2% 71% 55% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.2% 55% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.3% 39% -5.4%
15% -7.6% 27% -14.5%
20% -16.6% 19% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$60 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses278 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,148
Open positions0
Markets (closed)389 / 389
History coverage51d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 389 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $269 +$54 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1,989 −$199 -10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2,163 +$154 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $498 +$50 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $936 +$28 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $768 +$81 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $512 +$164 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $104 +$18 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$249 +484%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,265 +$348 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $82 +$87 +106%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,046 +$87 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,004 +$82 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $137 +$62 +45%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $504 −$124 -24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $210 +$150 +71%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $195 +$1,399 +717%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $336 +$680 +203%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $147 +$13 +9%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $237 +$132 +56%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $300 +$38 +13%
Argentina vs. Iceland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $11 +$6 +54%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $398 +$18 +5%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $282 +$67 +24%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +41%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1,055 −$583 -55%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $18 +$3 +16%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +177%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $220 +$66 +30%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $157 +$6 +4%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $343 +$6 +2%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $72 +$28 +39%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $554 +$1 +0%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $397 −$24 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $537 +$50 +9%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $246 +$54 +22%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $471 +$94 +20%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $377 −$377 -100%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $552 +$67 +12%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $242 +$36 +15%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $567 +$69 +12%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 92¢ $157 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $28 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $13 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $13 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $13 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $171 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $245 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $245 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 84¢ $50 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 84¢ $122 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 84¢ $150 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 84¢ $150 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 84¢ $50 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 80¢ $251 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $251 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 74¢ $503 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $250 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $246 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $11 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $9 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $17 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2850 history records