Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e7d…69a5 sports 768 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$443 (-5%) realized −$442 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%410W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$56
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 54% -12.3%
≤30d 452 -2.6% -11.9% 60% 51% -10.9%
≤90d 767 -6.4% -15.4% 53% 48% -15.4%
all 767 -6.4% -15.4% 53% 48% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 48% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 39% -23.5%
15% -30.8% 28% -30.9%
20% -37.6% 18% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$442
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses410 / 357
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)767 / 768
History coverage52d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Paulo Dos Santos 86¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $2 −$1 -62%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $7 −$4 -59%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $8 +$1 +6%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $6 −$4 -70%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $3 −$3 -88%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $11 +$5 +41%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $4 +$1 +37%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
ITF Vaasa: Filip Peliwo vs Matt Ponchet Jun 12 $3 −$2 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 86¢ $4 32m
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Fiona Ferro 99¢ $3 38m
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 88¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 99¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 83¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 90¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 90¢ $2 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama SELL Anastasia Kulikova 99¢ $4 2h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 32¢ $1 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Anastasia Kulikova 74¢ $3 2h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 81¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Jenson Brooksby 99¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 99¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 68¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $2 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Cosme de Ravel 99¢ $3 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 68¢ $2 4h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer SELL Florian Broska 99¢ $3 5h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Florian Broska 79¢ $2 5h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 99¢ $3 5h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 75¢ $2 6h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Darya Astakhova 72¢ $2 7h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 85¢ $2 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $2 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 82¢ $2 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 53¢ $0 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 44¢ $2 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 53¢ $3 7h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery SELL Lucio Ratti 99¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 1611 history records