Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1e78…fc45 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+10%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$29
other 10% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 47% -6.7%
≤30d 15 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 47% -6.7%
≤90d 15 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 47% -6.7%
all 15 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 47% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 20% -15.7%
15% -31.5% 20% -23.8%
20% -38.2% 20% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$62 +197%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $39 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $94 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records