Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e77…8c33
sports · 174 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$253,087 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$255,094 · open +$2,007
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,819
Realized−$255,094
Unrealized+$2,007
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses94 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$27,284
Open positions2
Markets (closed)249 / 174
Avg bet$11,416
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 249 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175,894
7 days−$206,236
14 days−$255,540
30 days−$313,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 38¢ 80¢ $1,803 $3,809 +$2,005 (+111%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+24%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 59¢ 0¢ $7,112 $0 −$7,112 (-100%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 62¢ 0¢ $12,400 $0 −$12,400 (-100%)
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $2,517 $0 −$2,517 (-100%)
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? No 59¢ 0¢ $7,080 $0 −$7,080 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 52¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 55¢ 0¢ $11,792 $0 −$11,792 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $508 $0 −$508 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $4,073 $0 −$4,073 (-100%)
Spread: Hawks (-16.5) Nets 50¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $4,732 $0 −$4,732 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $10,200 $0 −$10,200 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $11,262 $0 −$11,262 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $763 $0 −$763 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 215.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $1,406 $0 −$1,406 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry Diane Parry 63¢ 0¢ $4,536 $0 −$4,536 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $2,398 $0 −$2,398 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $243 $0 −$243 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $5,614 $0 −$5,614 (-100%)
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $2,700 $0 −$2,700 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $7,951 $0 −$7,951 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $12,400 −$12,400 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $508 −$508 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-16.5) Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $4,732 −$4,732 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $763 −$763 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $1,406 −$1,406 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $243 −$243 -100%
Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $5,614 −$5,614 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $7,951 −$7,951 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 12 $5,620 −$5,620 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Kings vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5 Jun 12 $374 −$374 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9,961 −$9,961 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Jun 12 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 12 $6,360 −$6,360 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Jun 12 $6,595 −$6,595 -100%
Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $89 −$89 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-4.5) Jun 12 $7,062 −$7,062 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,754 −$1,754 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-18.5) Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5) Jun 12 $260 −$260 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $4,566 −$4,566 -100%
Senators vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $354 −$354 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5 Jun 12 $8,027 −$8,027 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Jun 12 $11,556 −$11,556 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $198 −$198 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $8,804 −$8,804 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $4,552 −$4,552 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $3,155 −$3,155 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,381 −$1,381 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Jun 12 $8,045 −$8,045 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars Jun 12 $5,303 −$5,362 -101%
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $3,682 −$3,682 -100%
Canucks vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5,186 −$5,186 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $341 −$341 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $289 −$289 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Jun 12 $10,200 −$10,200 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $3,162 −$3,162 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$73,446
other 2% −$40,372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $9,410 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5,090 11h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $53,100 12h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $21,499 34h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $7,460 35h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $1 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $1,001 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $5 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $10 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $1 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $340 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $1 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $257 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $1 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $352 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $1 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $3 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $6 36h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $2 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $6 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $4 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $34 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $6 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $2,352 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $17,357 37h
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $363 42h
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $16 42h
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $16 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -69.0% -71.9% 15% 15% -35.4%
≤30d 218 -31.8% -38.3% 35% 35% -22.7%
≤90d 249 -26.8% -33.8% 38% 37% -19.7%
all 249 -26.8% -33.8% 38% 37% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.8% 37% -19.7%
10% -40.1% 37% -27.4%
15% ← realistic here -45.9% 37% -34.4%
20% -51.2% 36% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,819.37 · official $3,819.37 (match) · 3500 history records