Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e76…43f8 crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+6%) realized +$65 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%59W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$44
sports 27% +$52
other 24% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -16.5% -24.4% 43% 43% -7.3%
≤30d 35 -16.5% -24.4% 43% 43% -7.3%
≤90d 158 -6.2% -15.1% 37% 37% -5.8%
all 158 -6.2% -15.1% 37% 37% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 37% -5.8%
10% -23.3% 37% -14.8%
15% -30.7% 36% -23.1%
20% -37.5% 32% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses59 / 99
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)158 / 161
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +139%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$20 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$13 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$14 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$35 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 17 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 16 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 16 $8 +$11 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 8h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 34h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $15 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.92 · official $45.92 (match) · 238 history records