Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e72…1fd0 crypto 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$153 (+9%) realized +$152 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%164W / 121L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$186
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$132
sports 5% +$22
other 1% +$12
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 +4.9% -5.1% 61% 58% +1.3%
≤30d 252 +4.9% -5.1% 61% 58% +1.3%
≤90d 252 +4.9% -5.1% 61% 58% +1.3%
all 285 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 54% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 54% -0.9%
10% -18.6% 49% -10.4%
15% -26.5% 38% -19.1%
20% -33.7% 28% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses164 / 121
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage111d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 29¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$3 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$51 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$11 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$14 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.48 (match) · 553 history records