Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1e72…bd5d weather 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,079 (+20%) realized +$1,066 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%196W / 122L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$18
14 days+$35
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$961
crypto 10% +$11
other 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +10.1% -0.4% 73% 53% -2.9%
≤30d 166 +10.8% +0.2% 56% 49% -0.6%
≤90d 298 +29.9% +17.5% 60% 49% +7.6%
all 318 +33.3% +20.6% 62% 51% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 51% +7.3%
10% +9.1% 42% -3.0%
15% -1.4% 38% -12.4%
20% -11.1% 31% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1,066
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses196 / 122
Open positions2
Markets (closed)318 / 320
History coverage115d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Yes 70¢ 96¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? No 75¢ 96¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $86 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 +$10 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +29%
Will Croatia finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 18 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$7 +56%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +41%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 −$79 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $4 +$4 +91%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $4 +$8 +192%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$12 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$10 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$26 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$10 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$11 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$14 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$8 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$18 +254%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 75¢ $10 52m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? SELL No 33¢ $13 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 58m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY No 72¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 39¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 39¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 39¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.89 · official $50.11 (match) · 1052 history records