Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1e72…88a7 crypto 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$86
14 days+$189
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$209
crypto 18% −$52
sports 11% +$15
world 8% −$133
economics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.7% -2.6% 18% 18% +12.1%
≤30d 17 +13.9% +3.1% 29% 29% +34.2%
≤90d 21 +7.9% -2.4% 33% 33% +16.5%
all 96 -15.9% -24.0% 31% 31% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 31% -7.8%
10% -31.2% 29% -16.6%
15% -37.9% 27% -24.7%
20% -44.0% 24% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$14 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 66
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage128d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $48 +$158 +330%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $34 +$172 +509%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $19 −$6 -31%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $22 −$5 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 +$105 +132%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $55 +$102 +186%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $40 −$19 -48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $24 +$29 +119%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $84 −$83 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 28 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 23 $40 +$34 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 23 $23 +$17 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 12 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $29 +$18 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 03 $9 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 03 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $19 −$2 -11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 03 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $7 −$2 -26%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 3? Mar 03 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $62 −$62 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $3 $0 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 3? Mar 02 $6 −$5 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $37 44h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 3d
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL France 16¢ $6 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 28¢ $17 6d
Spread: France (-4.5) SELL France 16¢ $8 6d
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 22¢ $19 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $22 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 7d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 8d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 230 history records