Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e70…081b sports 21 markets active 4d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$110 (-15%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$150
other 36% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.8% -5.1% 33% 33% -22.2%
≤30d 21 +4.8% -5.1% 33% 33% -22.2%
≤90d 21 +4.8% -5.1% 33% 33% -22.2%
all 21 +4.8% -5.1% 33% 33% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 33% -22.2%
10% -14.2% 29% -29.7%
15% -22.5% 24% -36.5%
20% -30.1% 24% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$26 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage10d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$92 +226%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$53 -87%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$7 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 −$7 -18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $144 −$47 -33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$31 +303%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 −$14 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$26 +129%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$5 -20%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $33 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 94¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $40 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $41 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $41 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $41 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $40 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 49¢ $17 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $97 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 66¢ $41 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 21¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 32¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 28¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 24¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $20 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $20 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 91¢ $26 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 69¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records