Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e6d…08a8 sports 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77,208 (-21%) realized −$74,088 · open −$3,120
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%45W / 74L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,827per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$4,354est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days−$10,501
14 days−$53,243
30 days−$76,999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$35,822
other 12% −$29,321
world 5% −$15,126
crypto 0% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -39.9% -45.6% 33% 33% -71.8%
≤30d 119 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 37% -29.8%
≤90d 119 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 37% -29.8%
all 119 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 37% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.5% 37% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 32% -36.6%
15% -48.1% 24% -42.7%
20% -53.2% 21% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$3,929) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,627 vs −$2,030 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$9,011
Realized−$74,088
Unrealized−$3,120
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses45 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$4,354
Open positions4
Markets (closed)119 / 129
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2,827
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10,530 $7,277 −$3,252 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,637 +$137 (+9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $305 +$253 +83%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $505 +$241 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $61 +$55 +90%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $577 +$440 +76%
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $607 +$338 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $1 $0 -31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $610 −$600 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,055 −$2,000 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5,099 −$2,100 -41%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,715 −$4,600 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,285 −$1,260 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,033 +$251 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $13,940 −$13,731 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $5,096 −$5,000 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $30,951 −$18,916 -61%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10,458 −$6,982 -67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $3,003 +$887 +30%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $4,043 −$1,959 -48%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $811 +$644 +79%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $3,836 −$3,008 -78%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,116 −$1,100 -99%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $4,359 +$1,642 +38%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $1,014 +$740 +73%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,148 −$1,125 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $1,017 +$1,362 +134%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $812 +$758 +93%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5,760 +$3,078 +53%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $1,010 +$514 +51%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $3,761 +$1,320 +35%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $203 +$262 +129%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 07 $609 −$46 -8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $17 +$3 +17%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $8,872 +$4,845 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $558 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 1h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 24h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $51 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $61 29h
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $945 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- SELL 25¢ $1 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $577 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $610 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $607 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $205 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Canada BUY $49 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Canada BUY $97 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Cz BUY $103 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 24¢ $436 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $163 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $912 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,010.69 · official $9,020.88 (match) · 319 history records