Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1E 0x1e6b…1718 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,045 (+53%) realized +$1,044 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR82%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$467
14 days+$677
30 days+$1,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$486
other 38% +$532
crypto 13% +$146
world 8% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +82%
net ROI/market (all)+47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +55.8% +41.0% 75% 75% +27.0%
≤30d 11 +62.8% +47.3% 82% 82% +39.2%
≤90d 11 +62.8% +47.3% 82% 82% +39.2%
all 11 +62.8% +47.3% 82% 82% +39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.3% 82% +39.2%
10% +33.2% 82% +25.9%
15% +20.3% 82% +13.7%
20% +8.5% 64% +2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$128 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.93 per $1 lost it wins $4.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$1,044
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage22d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$24 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$154 +149%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $286 +$132 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$134 +259%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $154 +$135 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $256 +$146 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $155 +$100 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$110 +107%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $460 +$333 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 21m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $103 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $286 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $154 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $154 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $403 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $256 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $254 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $155 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $103 8d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $307 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.26 · official $174.26 (match) · 24 history records