Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e6a…46d3 crypto 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$76 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%138W / 27L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$16
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$73
other 1% −$8
sports 1% +$3
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.9% -10.3% 63% 57% -8.1%
≤30d 69 +4.9% -5.1% 74% 45% -8.0%
≤90d 114 +2.8% -7.0% 78% 27% -9.1%
all 165 +2.2% -7.6% 84% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 19% -9.1%
10% -16.4% 12% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 9% -25.7%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses138 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)165 / 172
History coverage141d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 99¢ 99¢ $154 $155 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $154 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $1 26h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $1 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $150 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.14 · official $161.14 (match) · 324 history records