Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e69…903f other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$8 (-27%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$7
sports 21% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -47.8% -52.8% 40% 20% -43.8%
≤30d 5 -47.8% -52.8% 40% 20% -43.8%
≤90d 5 -47.8% -52.8% 40% 20% -43.8%
all 5 -47.8% -52.8% 40% 20% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.8% 20% -43.8%
10% -57.3% 20% -49.2%
15% -61.4% 20% -54.1%
20% -65.2% 20% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.03 · official $8.03 (match) · 12 history records