Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e67…b11e crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-7%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.3% -31.6% 57% 43% -17.4%
≤30d 7 -24.3% -31.6% 57% 43% -17.4%
≤90d 7 -24.3% -31.6% 57% 43% -17.4%
all 7 -24.3% -31.6% 57% 43% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 43% -17.4%
10% -38.1% 14% -25.3%
15% -44.1% 14% -32.5%
20% -49.6% 14% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$42 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $106 +$60 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records