Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e63…aac8 crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-3%) realized −$16 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate75%81W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$60
crypto 44% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -7.5% -16.3% 75% 9% -13.5%
≤30d 108 -7.5% -16.3% 75% 9% -13.5%
≤90d 108 -7.5% -16.3% 75% 9% -13.5%
all 108 -7.5% -16.3% 75% 9% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 9% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 2% -21.8%
15% -31.6% 2% -29.4%
20% -38.3% 2% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses81 / 27
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)108 / 113
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 48¢ 100¢ $12 $24 +$12 (+106%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 9z 27¢ 100¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+270%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Bebop 33¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+203%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Walczaki 67¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+49%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Maya Joint 55¢ 60¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Yulia Starodubtseva 62¢ 40¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-36%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 50¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner RUSTEC 65¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 70¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner G2 Ares 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $205 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$38 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 62¢ $13 21m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 55¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 30¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 30¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 67¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 27¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 70¢ $14 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 52¢ $5 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 46¢ $5 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $7 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $1 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $0 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 33¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 65¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 65¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 14¢ $3 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 78¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 80¢ $16 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 16¢ $3 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $19 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $11 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.10 · official $104.10 (match) · 400 history records