Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e63…e417 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-12%) realized −$9 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$24
world 8% −$10
politics 4% −$6
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -23.4% -30.7% 21% 21% -35.3%
≤30d 52 -23.4% -30.7% 21% 21% -35.3%
≤90d 52 -23.4% -30.7% 21% 21% -35.3%
all 52 -23.4% -30.7% 21% 21% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 21% -35.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 21% -41.5%
15% -43.4% 21% -47.2%
20% -48.9% 17% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +131%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.18 · official $4.18 (match) · 115 history records