Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:37:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e63…7267
politics · 283 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$37 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses75 / 173
Open positions35
Markets (closed)248 / 283
History coverage5d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day721.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 35 History 248 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $281 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 12 $156 +$1 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$1
other 29% $0
culture 9% +$1
economics 6% $0
world 6% −$1
tech 3% +$2
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 14m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 14m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 14m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 14m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 15m
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 15m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 15m
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1 15m
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 15m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 15m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2 15m
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 15m
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 15m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? SELL No 100¢ $0 16m
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 16m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 16m
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 16m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 16m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $50 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 2% -9.5%
≤30d 248 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 248 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 2% -9.5%
all 248 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover721.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 2% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.72 · official $19.55 · 3500 history records