Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e62…8bb7 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$289 (+19%) realized +$300 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$223
other 41% +$140
world 2% −$23
politics 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 38% -14.1%
≤30d 13 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 38% -14.1%
≤90d 16 -37.7% -43.6% 31% 31% -17.7%
all 16 -37.7% -43.6% 31% 31% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 31% -17.7%
10% -49.0% 19% -25.6%
15% -53.9% 12% -32.8%
20% -58.4% 12% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$53 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$300
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage68d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $440 −$400 -91%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $250 +$206 +82%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $214 +$36 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $113 +$151 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $69 −$67 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 +$12 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $68 −$11 -17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $142 +$43 +30%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? Apr 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $20 −$19 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $40 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $440 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $250 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $251 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $214 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $264 44h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $113 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $69 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $57 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $68 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 82¢ $27 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $27 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $48 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $63 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? BUY No 1¢ $3 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? BUY No 0¢ $20 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.02 · official $29.03 (match) · 33 history records