Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1e62…79f1 sports 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$436 (+21%) realized +$399 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%77W / 86L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day118.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$440
other 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 +22.3% +10.7% 47% 46% +11.0%
≤30d 163 +22.3% +10.7% 47% 46% +11.0%
≤90d 163 +22.3% +10.7% 47% 46% +11.0%
all 163 +22.3% +10.7% 47% 46% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 46% +11.0%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 44% +0.4%
15% -9.6% 42% -9.3%
20% -18.4% 36% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized+$399
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses77 / 86
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions40
Markets (closed)163 / 203
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day118.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 22¢ 94¢ $17 $73 +$56 (+325%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 80¢ $22 $33 +$11 (+52%)
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Toronto Marlies 64¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+56%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 100¢ $11 $21 +$10 (+92%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 74¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+72%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 98¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+166%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$5 (+56%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Houston Astros 44¢ 78¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+77%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 42¢ 80¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+92%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Under 35¢ 62¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+77%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego 23¢ 24¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Over 39¢ 34¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Under 60¢ 94¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+57%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Under 48¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+108%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 60¢ 90¢ $7 $11 +$3 (+49%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Under 70¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+43%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 57¢ 60¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 34¢ 27¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 88¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Over 51¢ 51¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 44¢ 50¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 59¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 39¢ 25¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Under 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $7 +$5 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $26 −$3 -10%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $12 +$9 +75%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 +$10 +134%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$11 +157%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $11 +$11 +97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $12 +$12 +97%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $13 +$12 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) Jun 17 $10 +$24 +238%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $29 −$13 -45%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 +$15 +95%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $29 −$23 -77%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$8 +134%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 17 $11 +$10 +90%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 17 $12 +$13 +109%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$6 -43%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 +$9 +134%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $22 −$3 -14%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $11 +$2 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $6 +$2 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $11 −$4 -41%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $6 +$3 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $6 +$11 +172%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $7 +$13 +180%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 −$13 -66%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $33 −$25 -77%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $14 −$5 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $8 42m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 45m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 29¢ $11 46m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $5 46m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $7 52m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 52m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 54m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $7 54m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 35¢ $7 57m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $8 57m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $13 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $5 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 34¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $16 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $14 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 70¢ $7 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 35¢ $23 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $9 1h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $7 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $15 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $6 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $12 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $6 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 43¢ $6 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $8 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $7 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $6 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.25 · official $548.59 (match) · 429 history records