Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1e60…536b sports 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,279 (+7%) realized +$1,278 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%94W / 165L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$2,493
14 days−$2,171
30 days−$1,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$942
other 22% +$25
crypto 1% −$93
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -44.1% -49.4% 21% 21% -60.7%
≤30d 151 -8.7% -17.4% 35% 35% -22.8%
≤90d 259 +5.9% -4.2% 36% 36% -5.2%
all 259 +5.9% -4.2% 36% 36% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 36% -5.2%
10% -13.4% 35% -14.3%
15% -21.8% 33% -22.6%
20% -29.4% 32% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$46 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$1,278
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses94 / 165
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage133d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$29 +97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $11 +$18 +158%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $59 +$72 +121%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$20 -20%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$55 +108%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $9 −$7 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $72 +$38 +54%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $120 −$48 -40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 +$67 +338%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $13 +$17 +127%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +71%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $19 +$10 +54%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $15 +$14 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +95%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $37 −$24 -65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $36 −$16 -45%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $14 +$27 +194%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $208 +$26 +12%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$18 +114%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $20 +$21 +103%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 +$15 +149%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $25 +$17 +66%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 0m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 40¢ $41 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 27¢ $19 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $60 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $30 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $19 4h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 99¢ $132 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 44¢ $59 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 66¢ $80 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 65¢ $80 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $24 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 81¢ $106 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 38¢ $51 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 33h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals SELL Yes $2 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 33h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $9 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $40 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $4 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $110 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $72 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.04 · official $26.04 (match) · 768 history records