Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1E 0x1e5e…3daf crypto 22 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$24 (-24%) realized −$24 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%8W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-34.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-27.7%	-34.6%	36%	36%	-33.5%
≤30d	22	-27.7%	-34.6%	36%	36%	-33.5%
≤90d	22	-27.7%	-34.6%	36%	36%	-33.5%
all	22	-27.7%	-34.6%	36%	36%	-33.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-34.6%	36%	-33.5%
10% ← realistic here	-40.8%	32%	-39.9%
15%	-46.5%	27%	-45.7%
20%	-51.8%	23%	-51.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -30% → late -26% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$24

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses8 / 14

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on	Jun 11	$1	+$1	+115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 11	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 11	$4	+$5	+123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 11	$9	+$10	+106%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$4	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$5	+101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$2	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 11	$6	−$2	-35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 11	$3	$0	+15%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (	Jun 11	$3	$0	-11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11?	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 11	$6	−$6	-100%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 11	$4	+$1	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on	BUY Yes	16¢	$4	6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on	BUY Yes	46¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$3	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$3	6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$3	6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Natus Vincere	36¢	$5	6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$3	6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$3	6d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (	SELL Yes	20¢	$3	6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$3	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$3	6d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (	BUY No	9¢	$3	6d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (	BUY Yes	21¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$3	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.17 · official $2.17 (match) · 44 history records