Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e5d…3d28 world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1
politics 20% $0
other 9% +$2
sports 4% $0
tech 4% +$1
finance 3% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 22% -10.5%
≤30d 21 +20.3% +8.8% 48% 24% -9.6%
≤90d 21 +20.3% +8.8% 48% 24% -9.6%
all 60 +7.6% -2.7% 43% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 10% -9.4%
10% -12.0% 5% -18.1%
15% -20.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -28.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage321d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $83 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $109 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $59 −$6 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $53 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $55 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 93°F or higher on August 12? Aug 15 $48 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July? Aug 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $53 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $49 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records