Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e5a…935f crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39,573 (-58%) realized −$34,957 · open −$4,616
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate16%31W / 159L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$4,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$296
14 days−$6,462
30 days−$6,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% −$15,572
crypto 28% −$10,681
other 27% −$10,702
world 4% −$2,188
economics 0% −$40
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -41.0% -46.6% 17% 17% +25.8%
≤30d 55 -61.5% -65.2% 15% 15% -73.7%
≤90d 169 -63.7% -67.2% 12% 12% -72.4%
all 190 -42.9% -48.3% 16% 15% -66.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 15% -66.1%
10% -53.3% 13% -69.4%
15% -57.8% 11% -72.3%
20% -61.9% 11% -75.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$265 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$4,006
Realized−$34,957
Unrealized−$4,616
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses31 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Open positions46
Markets (closed)190 / 194
History coverage428d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,241 $1,108 −$133 (-11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $924 $627 −$297 (-32%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $478 $304 −$173 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $299 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $221 $278 +$57 (+26%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 44¢ $102 $274 +$172 (+168%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $3,298 $158 −$3,140 (-95%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $279 $117 −$162 (-58%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $250 $112 −$138 (-55%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? No 6¢ 4¢ $125 $97 −$29 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $15 $74 +$59 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $15 $74 +$59 (+381%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $75 $68 −$8 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $10 $66 +$57 (+589%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $15 $54 +$39 (+251%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? No 10¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 65¢ 16¢ $160 $38 −$121 (-76%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+277%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $15 $34 +$19 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $15 $34 +$19 (+121%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $401 $26 −$375 (-94%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $112 $14 −$98 (-88%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $223 $13 −$210 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$24 -252%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$35 -369%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$30 -519%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$32 -338%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$36 -187%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $164 +$886 +540%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $161 −$111 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $118 +$31 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$96 +345%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $94 +$13 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $148 −$147 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$11 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$26 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $98 −$83 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $43 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $359 −$340 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $469 +$131 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 06 $161 −$160 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $85 −$80 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $43 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $88 −$82 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 04 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 04 $447 −$447 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 04 $117 −$117 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $520 −$518 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Jun 04 $561 −$561 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Jun 04 $692 −$692 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 04 $1,402 −$1,402 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,754 −$1,754 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $78 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $214 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $311 2h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $57 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $20 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 10¢ $50 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 5¢ $6 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 5¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,005.76 · official $4,010.03 (match) · 3185 history records