Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1E 0x1e55…bad0 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$570 (+2%) realized +$505 · open +$65
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,055per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$215est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,036
7 days+$2,267
14 days+$445
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$377
other 34% +$887
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +20.1% +8.7% 67% 56% -2.6%
≤30d 32 +18.5% +7.2% 59% 50% -8.3%
≤90d 32 +18.5% +7.2% 59% 50% -8.3%
all 32 +18.5% +7.2% 59% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.2% 50% -8.3%
10% -3.0% 28% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -12.4% 19% -25.1%
20% -21.0% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$460 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$895
Realized+$505
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$215
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,055
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) IR Iran 83¢ 90¢ $830 $895 +$65 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $638 +$27 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $1,083 −$30 -3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $120 +$880 +733%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,668 +$332 +20%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,047 +$53 +5%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $3,611 +$389 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $805 −$461 -57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,200 +$300 +14%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 −$64 -78%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 +$10 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $900 +$600 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $68 −$52 -77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $790 +$210 +27%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $149 −$148 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,437 −$1,432 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $756 +$244 +32%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $215 −$210 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $939 +$161 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,570 +$430 +27%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $328 −$322 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,061 +$439 +21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,183 −$575 -26%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $236 +$164 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $325 +$175 +54%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,259 +$391 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1,650 +$25 +2%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,467 +$733 +50%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $748 −$18 -2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $491 −$165 -34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $328 +$862 +262%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,160 −$900 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 64¢ $665 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 83¢ $834 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 60¢ $638 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 80¢ $440 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 80¢ $40 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 46¢ $453 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $4 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $2 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $3 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $2 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $3 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $15 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $10 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $11 14h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $16 15h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $34 15h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $2 15h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $8 16h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $2 16h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $2 16h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $2 16h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $4 17h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $146 17h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $4 17h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $22 17h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $8 18h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $8 18h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $8 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 95¢ $1,047 19h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $30 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.00 · official $905.00 · 223 history records