Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e55…e3e2 world 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 198d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,591 (+3%) realized +$25,797 · open +$794
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%203W / 123L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$2,594per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$368est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$2,791
14 days+$11,387
30 days+$19,465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$47,429
other 21% −$14,302
politics 12% +$1,718
sports 8% −$4,959
crypto 3% +$1,011
economics 2% −$2
finance 1% −$2,123
tech 1% −$27
culture 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.0% -40.3% 25% 25% -49.5%
≤30d 82 +42.1% +28.5% 56% 43% +6.8%
≤90d 207 +30.2% +17.8% 58% 32% -7.3%
all 326 +21.4% +9.9% 62% 31% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 31% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.6% 25% -15.5%
15% -10.2% 20% -23.6%
20% -19.0% 16% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$2,084) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$455 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$4,375
Realized+$25,797
Unrealized+$794
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses203 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$368
Open positions10
Markets (closed)326 / 337
History coverage198d ⚠
Avg bet$2,594
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 90¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,081 +$81 (+8%)
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ 100¢ $730 $999 +$269 (+37%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 25¢ 76¢ $300 $919 +$619 (+206%)
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31? Yes 75¢ 64¢ $779 $667 −$111 (-14%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $333 $244 −$89 (-27%)
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $135 $150 +$15 (+11%)
McDonald’s in Cuba announced in 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $123 $126 +$4 (+3%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Pauline Hanson wear a burqa again in 2026? No 78¢ 86¢ $78 $86 +$7 (+9%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Yes 51¢ 95¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $201 +$37 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 26 $203 −$3 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $324 −$17 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $304 +$70 +23%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $2,498 −$171 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,148 −$2,144 -42%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,187 −$551 -46%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 -12%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9,730 +$270 +3%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $932 +$242 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $13,508 +$11,506 +85%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $930 +$7 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,300 +$133 +10%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $181 −$181 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $178 −$178 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$72 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 +$123 +152%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $13 +$90 +712%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $181 +$19 +11%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 +$86 +550%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $186 +$14 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5,432 +$1,422 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $38 +$63 +165%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $186 +$14 +7%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $172 +$29 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$102 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,540 +$459 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $55 +$47 +86%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $186 +$14 +7%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $188 +$12 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $85 +$119 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $121 +$81 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$73 +250%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $181 +$20 +11%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $193 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $100 1h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $201 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ $352 15h
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $345 19h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ $4 20h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ $8 21h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ $8 22h
McDonald’s in Cuba announced in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $124 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 29h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $200 29h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ $270 30h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ $73 30h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $203 31h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 73¢ $16 31h
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 43h
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? BUY Yes 40¢ $72 43h
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 25¢ $121 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $84 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 42¢ $93 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 31¢ $159 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 38¢ $117 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 42¢ $47 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $825 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $499 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $499 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $499 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,375.23 · official $4,375.23 (match) · 3500 history records