Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e55…a3fb other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$926 (+24%) realized +$927 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,153
7 days+$818
14 days+$813
30 days+$813
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$1,085
sports 17% −$190
crypto 8% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +20.3% +8.8% 38% 38% -1.5%
≤30d 68 +15.9% +4.8% 37% 35% -1.7%
≤90d 68 +15.9% +4.8% 37% 35% -1.7%
all 68 +15.9% +4.8% 37% 35% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 35% -1.7%
10% -5.2% 32% -11.1%
15% -14.4% 31% -19.7%
20% -22.8% 21% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$30 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$927
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage8d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $83 −$22 -27%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $194 +$118 +61%
England vs. Croatia: Second half draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $32 −$22 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$170 -82%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$79 -76%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 +$123 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $32 +$1,140 +3537%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +41%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 +$95 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$28 +137%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $63 −$8 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 −$14 -15%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $11 +$26 +225%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +287%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $409 −$346 -84%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $92 −$83 -90%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$30 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $297 −$82 -28%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $32 +$15 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $52 −$5 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$17 +110%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$33 -40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $225 +$129 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -54%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 +$19 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$22 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $72 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 54¢ $60 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
England vs. Croatia: Second half draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 15h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $25 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $83 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $204 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $103 27h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $32 27h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,172 30h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.03 · official $209.03 (match) · 161 history records