Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e54…ad5d crypto 1446 markets active 13h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (249 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,233 (-20%) realized −$1,233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%531W / 1045L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day249.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$102
sports 36% +$121
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (249 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1081 -23.5% -30.8% 28% 19% -55.5%
≤30d 1576 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 26% -45.8%
≤90d 1576 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 26% -45.8%
all 1576 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 26% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover249.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 26% -45.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 21% -51.0%
15% -35.0% 18% -55.7%
20% -41.3% 15% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses531 / 1045
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1576 / 1446
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day249.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1576 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 24 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 3? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 78,600 on May 2, 7PM ET? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 2 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 6? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 3? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 13h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 13h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 13h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 36¢ $2 13h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 13h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $3 13h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 40¢ $2 13h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 41¢ $2 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 30¢ $2 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 58¢ $4 14h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1 14h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 14h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 14h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records