Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e52…91d6 sports 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (287 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15,447 (+26%) realized +$16,492 · open −$1,045
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%67W / 60L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day287.4pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,026
other 27% +$217
world 10% −$141
weather 2% −$59
tech 2% −$77
politics 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (287 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 24% -8.3%
≤30d 127 +13.3% +2.5% 53% 28% -5.5%
≤90d 127 +13.3% +2.5% 53% 28% -5.5%
all 127 +13.3% +2.5% 53% 28% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover287.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 28% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 20% -14.6%
15% -16.3% 17% -22.8%
20% -24.5% 16% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$61 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$4,281
Realized+$16,492
Unrealized−$1,045
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses67 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions119
Markets (closed)127 / 178
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$330
Trades / day287.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 119 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $655 $659 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 92¢ $249 $262 +$13 (+5%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $250 $253 +$4 (+1%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 74¢ $141 $218 +$77 (+55%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 68¢ 71¢ $204 $215 +$12 (+6%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 43¢ 48¢ $150 $170 +$19 (+13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 44¢ $157 $155 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 73¢ 74¢ $153 $155 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $138 $142 +$4 (+3%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 48¢ $166 $136 −$30 (-18%)
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? No 88¢ 88¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 23¢ 26¢ $101 $116 +$15 (+15%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 26¢ 34¢ $75 $98 +$23 (+31%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $101 $94 −$7 (-7%)
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $224 $81 −$143 (-64%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $75 $80 +$4 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 26¢ $173 $78 −$96 (-55%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 76¢ $7 $71 +$64 (+944%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $63 $45 −$18 (-28%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? No 67¢ 54¢ $54 $44 −$11 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $949 +$231 +24%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,372 +$167 +12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $468 −$23 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $435 +$34 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $789 −$77 -10%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $33 −$21 -66%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $166 +$26 +16%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $435 +$26 +6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $75 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $12 +$12 +104%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $272 +$2 +1%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $132 +$168 +127%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $124 +$179 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $253 −$54 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $95 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $233 +$24 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $157 −$46 -29%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $71 +$229 +323%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1,889 +$292 +15%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $17 +$23 +139%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $763 +$182 +24%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $312 +$25 +8%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $381 +$31 +8%
CD Universidad de Concepción leading at halftime? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $315 −$114 -36%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $239 +$22 +9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$52 -26%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $361 −$361 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $322 −$322 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $262 −$40 -15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,041 +$48 +5%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $267 +$2 +1%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $993 −$17 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $511 −$20 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $825 +$48 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $618 +$25 +4%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $64 +$22 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $312 +$121 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,014 −$84 -8%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $412 −$207 -50%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $246 +$14 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,589 +$44 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $329 +$182 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $28 8m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $15 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $6 30m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $26 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $5 39m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 14¢ $40 40m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 51¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 80¢ $4 40m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $2 40m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 67¢ $36 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 67¢ $52 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 51m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $40 55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $59 55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $200 55m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 56m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 41¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 41¢ $132 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $47 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $245 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 81¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,280.82 · official $4,270.64 (match) · 3500 history records