Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e4f…4ab5 crypto 1260 markets active 5h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$298 (-12%) realized −$234 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%603W / 651L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$66
14 days−$57
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$232
other 8% +$5
politics 4% +$5
world 1% −$37
economics 1% −$28
tech 1% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -38.9% -44.7% 39% 39% -51.6%
≤30d 145 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 54% -20.6%
≤90d 582 -8.7% -17.4% 51% 50% -19.8%
all 1254 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 46% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 46% -18.4%
10% -23.8% 43% -26.2%
15% -31.1% 39% -33.3%
20% -37.9% 35% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses603 / 651
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1254 / 1260
History coverage292d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? No 21¢ 34¢ $80 $128 +$48 (+60%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? No 7¢ 9¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? No 16¢ 6¢ $33 $12 −$21 (-63%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? No 26¢ 2¢ $65 $6 −$59 (-91%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? No 8¢ 1¢ $35 $2 −$33 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $35 −$33 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY No 7¢ $11 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY No 21¢ $84 16h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $21 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? BUY No 16¢ $35 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 25¢ $35 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 4¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY No 8¢ $37 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 26¢ $68 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.95 · official $177.04 · 2507 history records