Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1E 0x1e4f…1f5d other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$19
politics 36% −$14
sports 5% +$66
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 +2.5% -7.3% 6% 5% -9.4%
all 107 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 7% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 7% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×11.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage118d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $388 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $395 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $293 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $666 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $298 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $701 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $356 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $298 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $289 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $302 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $320 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $345 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $358 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $364 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $273 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $342 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $345 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $334 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $312 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $270 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $163 22d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $163 27d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $201 30d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $201 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $195 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $195 32d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 33d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 36d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 36d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 38d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 47d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $278 48d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $285 49d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $285 49d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $293 49d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $293 49d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $298 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.92 · official $82.92 (match) · 314 history records